朱志群 美国巴克内尔大学政治学与国际关系系教授
The delicate U.S.-China relationship
survived President Donald Trump’s first year in office without too many
surprises. However, at the start of his second year in the White House, some
dark clouds are hovering over the relationship.
Recent developments in Washington
make one wonder whether some people in the U.S. government are actively seeking
confrontation with China. On January 9, 2018, the House of Representatives passed
the Taiwan Travel Act, indicating that it wants the U.S. government to
“encourage” visits between U.S. and Taiwanese officials “at all
levels”—including officials from the State Department and Defense Department.
If the Senate were to pass a similar act, and if President Trump were to sign
it into law, then the unofficial U.S.-Taiwan relationship would be upgraded to
an official level, which would surely send U.S.-China relations into a
tailspin. The Taiwan Travel Act arguably violates the 1979 Taiwan
Relations Act, a U.S. law which set up the American Institute in Taiwan as a
“nongovernmental entity” to promote “commercial, cultural and other relations”
between the United States and Taiwan.
The House passed “Taiwan Travel Act”
on the heels of President Trump’s signing of the 2018 National Defense
Authorization Act in December 2017. The act contains some important items
related to Taiwan. For example, it suggests that the United States
“should” invite Taiwan to joint military exercises with the U.S. military and
consider the advisability and feasibility of reestablishing port of call
exchanges between the U.S. and Taiwan navies. This undoubtedly raises a big red
flag in U.S.-China relations.
 |
| China is firmly opposed to Taiwan Travel Act, which interferes with China's internal affairs. (Photo: CCTV 13 News/Sina News) |
Taiwan is not the only issue which
the United States is using to irritate China now. While complaining about
unfair Chinese trade practices and threatening a trade war with China, the Trump
administration ignores the fact that the U.S. market is not completely open to
China. Before Trump took office, he met in New York with Alibaba’s Jack
Ma, who agreed to help Trump create jobs. However, earlier this month Ma’s Ant
Financial was forced to withdraw its offer to buy money-transfer company
MoneyGram. Ma reportedly lobbied Trump officials for months for this merger,
pledging to create jobs in the United States, but some members of Congress
expressed concerns that the Chinese government had a 15 percent
stake in Ant, a claim that Ant denies. Consequently, the Committee on
Foreign Investment in the United States blocked the bid on national-security
grounds. Last year, Congress advised the committee to further scrutinize
acquisitions of U.S. assets by China’s state-owned businesses or firms with
ties to the Chinese government.
 |
| Jack Ma and President Donald Trump met to discuss US-China relationships and job creation. (Photo: Agence France- Presse/Getty Images) |
Other Chinese businesses such as Huawei
and ZTE also hit the wall recently in their plan to expand business in the
U.S. Huawei is a multinational telecommunications company but has had
difficulty entering the U.S. market because its founder Ren Zhengfei was a
former People’s Liberation Army soldier. No convincing evidence has been
produced to show that Huawei has ties to the Chinese military.
Deep trouble is also spilling into
the strategic field. The new National Defense Strategy that was
released last Friday identifies China and Russia as America’s biggest threats,
replacing terrorism for the first time since 9/11. The document points to
China’s military actions in the South China Sea as evidence of Beijing’s
aggressiveness. But China and other claimants in the region have been working to
lower tensions, and most notably relations between China and the Philippines
have greatly improved over the past couple of years.
In the Washington policy and
think-tank circles, there used to be two camps regarding U.S. approach towards
China: the “panda-huggers” who promote engagement and friendly relations
between the two powers, and the “dragon-slayers,” who advocate tough handling
of China through deterrence, sanctions, and military confrontation. The
existence of the two camps and their rational debate have been healthy for U.S.
policymaking. Today “dragon slayers” are sharpening their knives while
“panda-huggers” seem to have either been sidelined or gone hiding.
There is an urgent need to return to
a sensible and pragmatic approach to China based on common interests that have
guided U.S. policy since President Nixon’s visit to China in 1972. The rise of
China and President Xi Jinping’s strong leadership certainly present a serious
challenge for the United States. But is poking China in the eye on issues like
Taiwan and trade the best way to deal with China? Lack of public debate on
China may lead to a short-sighted policy that will hurt American interests in
the long term.
Amidst the turbulence, Trump and Xi spoke on
the phone last week, suggesting that the two leaders are still
committed to maintaining a stable relationship and settling the disputes
through dialogue. Is the rapport between Trump and Xi strong enough to smooth
bilateral ties? Prudence must prevail when conducting this most important
bilateral relationship because the stakes are too high for the two countries as
well as the international community.
（以上文字仅代表作者本人观点，本文由作者供稿，首刊于2018年1月23日The National Interest）
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